When you’re planning a project, you tend to be optimistic about its progress. You envisage what you have to do and to what beautiful results this will lead. You don’t want to think about all the nasty things that can happen.
But there are many things that can go wrong. The logframe helps you identify these risks and the assumptions that you make at each stage and level. This is the role of the fourth column.
The assumptions describe the situations, events, conditions or decisions which are necessary for the success of the project, but which are largely or completely beyond the control of the project's management.
The fourth column and the first column have an if… then… relation. If the assumptions in column four are met, or if the risks do not occur, then we’ll achieve what we’ve set out to do in column one.
So starting at the bottom:
Identifying the risks and assumptions may seem easy, but there is more to it than meets the eye. The Results Based Management approach puts a lot of attention to this aspect, so check it out if you want more information.
When you’ve identified the possible risks, you have to assess what the probability is that each risk occurs:
Like indicators, assumptions have to be verifiable. Don’t invent problems in your head.